Showing posts with label lead-directing double. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lead-directing double. Show all posts

Sunday, December 8, 2019

Lead-directing doubles

How good should your suit be to make a lead-directing double of an artificial bid? Let's think about what we're trying to achieve when we make one.

What we're trying to achieve is to get our defense off to a better start than partner might come up with on his own. The danger of course is that partner might have a very good lead of his own (Q from QJTxx, for example) which he will eschew in order to lead your suit. On other occasions, partner has no good lead and will be thrilled to get your suggestion, even if it turns out not to be the killer lead. At least, it will have been neutral.

So, in order to ensure that your suggested lead is at least neutral, apply this rule: can you guarantee that you will win at least one of the first two tricks of the suit?

I'm posing this question in a no-trump context. Against a suit contract, the second or even the first lead of a suit might get ruffed and you might have simply accomplished setting up a trick which can never be cashed. But you won't have lost anything.

So, what honor holdings would qualify for a lead-directing double?

  • AK? Obviously!
  • KQ? Yes: whoever has the ace you will establish one trick.
  • AQ? Yes: if dummy happens to have the K, you'll win two tricks.
  • KJT? I don't think so.
  • KJ? No, no, no!!
  • Anything else? Don't even think about it.


What's about KJT? You will build a trick with this holding even if declarer has ace and queen. But you may never get to cash it. Is it really worth risking the possibility that partner has a better lead? Maybe but, on balance, I think not.

What about accompanying length? How about making a lead-directing double of an artificial bid with AKx? What could go wrong? We almost definitely will get to cash two tricks. Maybe partner has a doubleton and can ruff the third round! There's just one little problem. The opponents, who nearly always have more high-card points than your side, might just decide to redouble!

How about AKxxx? The danger is still there (partner may have a void) but I think that you'd have to get very unlucky to find them redoubling and making. Plus, you will have some company at least.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Doubling 3NT for a lead (part two)

Last time, we talked about the general subject of doubling 3NT for a lead. Now, let's talk about the most problematic of all calls: double after it goes 1NT pass 3NT. You could play that partner could lead any bad suit, but it won't be any surprise when both defenders are weak in a minor suit on this auction. So, to me it makes sense to restrict leader's choice to a major. Some pairs play that double asks for the lead of a specific major. But unless you play a lot with this particular partner, it will rarely come up.

So, what sort of suit do we need for the double to work? How about ♠AKQxx? At the recent NABC in Providence, RI, this exact situation came up in a match against Benito Garozzo on my right and Jan van Cleeff on my left. Was my suit good enough to double with? I didn't have forever to think about it (lest I pass UI to partner) so I had to make up my mind quickly. Yes, I decided. There followed several tortuous minutes while I waited for my opponents to consider their options and for my partner to lead (this last didn't take long). Benito redoubled to ask how opener's majors were and opener passed to say "pretty good." However, none of this was clear to me at the time. It appeared to me that they didn't have a clear system for this situation (I knew who RHO was of course, but not LHO). My partner, Vincent, put his card face down. "Turn it over", I said. The deuce of spades. Hallelujah! Dummy came down with two small spades and declarer asked a fatuous "what are your leads?", and played the ten at trick under my queen. This card, incidentally, caused quite an upset—to say the least—for the 87-year-old Garozzo. But it was all play acting by van Cleeff and my feeling of victory was very short-lived. Declarer started with JTxxx of spades and wrapped up 10 tricks to go +1400. We lost 13 IMPs on that deal.

Was my bid so very bad? or was I just a little bit unlucky? I determined to find out. This wasn't a trivial problem in probabilities and I had to write some Java code to figure it out. But now the results are in!

I set up the following conditions: LHO has at least two cards in every suit and RHO is nominally balanced (so at least one spade). For the five remaining spades, LHO has 5 vacant places, partner 13 and RHO 12. Additionally, LHO has fewer than six spades; RHO has fewer than five (no transfer) and, 80% of the time, fewer than four (he didn't use Stayman). I also adjusted for the case where partner has four or more spades, because he might not recognize that spades is our suit. With five I assumed, he will not lead spades and with four I assumed he will pick a spade half the time. Probability of success? 52%.

That's really not enough (as I discovered) to make the bid worth while. Let's see what we get as an expectation of IMP gain.

We assume that when we are successful, running our suit, they will run to a minor-suit half of the time (bidding game half of those times and making it half of those times); otherwise they will sit for the double. When we are destined to fail, we assume that they will redouble, as Garozzo did. We also assume for the sake of argument that they are vulnerable.

In the case of my AKQxx, we have the following outcomes (with probabilities and expectations of IMPs):

OutcomeProbabilityIMPsExpectation
Redouble48%-13-6.24
Sit26%+13+3.38
Partial13%+10+1.3
Game6.5%00
Bad game6.5%+12+0.78
Overall-0.78

Oh dear! Overall, the expected gain is negative! With so many possible things to go wrong, not to mention the fact that partner might happen on a spade lead all on his own, it's a bad idea to double. There's also the psychological factor to take into account when playing with humans rather than robots. Partner (not to mention doubler) may be so disheartened by this result that the rest of the set suffers. I don't think that happened in our case (although we netted minus 3 on the other six boards), but it easily might.

Let's take a look at some other cases:

HoldingP(success)Expectation of IMPs
AKQxx52.0%-0.78
AKQJx66.6%+3.99
AKQxxx72.7%+4.80
AKxxxxx30.1%-5.93

The two middle situations are much better. Having the jack in the second case makes quite a big difference mainly because it increases the probability of success, but also because it prevents a redoubled overtrick. AKQTx would be better than my hand but obviously not as good as AKQJx. Adding a sixth card increases the probability of success and also the penalty when they sit. Note that AKxxxxx just isn't good enough. Basically, you have to catch partner with two and even then you need an even split. Having the jack would help in those cases where opener has a doubleton queen or dummy (or partner) has her. But even then, you're gambling quite a bit.

What about a topless solid suit such as KQJxxx with an outside ace? The overall probabilities and expectations are approximately the same as when you have AKQxxx. However, you will have to face the rather likely possibility that opener has 8 running tricks in addition to the ace of your suit.

There's another way this can backfire, as my partner and I learned a number of years ago at a sectional Swiss in Maine. Our non-vulnerable opponents were playing a weak no trump and the auction went 1NT—3NT.  I doubled with something like ♠xxxx KQJxxx x ♣Ax. Partner had something like ♠xx Ax in the majors and quite reasonably assumed my suit was spades. We learned then, due to an adverse swing of 12 IMPs, that it might be a good idea to cash a major suit ace first just to see partner's card.

So, here are my conclusions if you're thinking of doubling 1NT—3NT for a major suit lead (assuming you've discussed this situation with partner):

HoldingTo double or not to double?
AKQxxDon't!
AKQJxDo
AKQxxxDo
AKxxxxxAbsolutely not!
KQJxxxMaybe but be ready to apologize

Monday, December 15, 2014

Doubling 3NT for a lead

I've previously talked about various different sorts of lead-directing double. But I couldn't find any article where I had discussed doubling a 3NT contract for a lead. It's uncommon, for sure, but when it comes up, you really need to be on the same page with your partner.

Following the same principle of the Lightner double of slams, there is little reason to double a freely bid 3NT to increase the penalty. The arithmetic just doesn't support it. Suppose that they have bid a silly 3NT, not vulnerable, and you think, based on the auction and your holding in the suits bid on your right, that the contract will go down on partner's normal lead, most hopefully by two tricks. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the probabilities of various numbers of tricks for declarer are for 6 thru 10: 10%, 40%, 30%, 15%, 5%. At the other table, your teammates are in the more sensible contract of 2NT. The lead and the number of tricks taken are the same at both tables (yes, I know this is a big assumption). The number of IMPs in your favor is expected to be: 9 * 10% + 6 * 40% + 6 * 30% + -9 * 15% + -9 * 5%, which comes to 3.3. This is modestly positive but it might actually go negative if the opponents redouble when they are making, especially if they are vulnerable. And, then there's the very likely eventuality that they will run to a making part-score or, worse, game. And, far worse, the ignominious possibility that your double will tip declarer off to the winning line!

Contrast this with the situation where the opponents are actually going to make (-6 IMPs) on partner's normal lead, but will go down when you tell partner what to lead (+5 IMPs). That's a swing of 11 IMPs. The swing when the opponents are vulnerable would be 16 IMPs.

Unfortunately, you can't lean over to partner and say "lead a club", though you could try coughing (JK). You have to have a general agreement about what lead you want based on the auction.

Here's the scheme that I think makes the most sense and is easiest to remember:
  1. if leader has bid a suit, then lead that suit
  2. else if doubler has bid a suit, then don't lead that suit
  3. else if dummy has bid a suitthen lead that suit
  4. else use your judgment, normally leading your lesser major suit.
I'm also willing to play #2 as "do lead my suit" but it seems to me that partner is probably going to lead my suit anyway. The idea of "don't lead my suit" comes from George Rosenkranz's Tips for Tops. It can often happen that either because doubler had no opportunity to bid two suits or simply because, say, he opened a suit with nothing much in it he thinks that they will go down if you lead something intelligent. It might well be dummy's first bid suit. Let's say that the auction has gone 1♠ (X) p (2) p (3NT) p p X all pass. Your hand is ♠Kx Jx Txxx ♣Jxxxx. Normally you would lead the ♠K. But partner is asking you not to lead a spade. What could his other suit be? Could it be hearts? Double of dummy's 2 call would have been takeout-oriented, not penalty. Declarer has the spades stopped and he has enough tricks in one or both of the minors for his contract. He's relying (inadvisably) on dummy's hearts and/or hoping you will lead a spade. Get that J on the table, therefore.

The reason for the first rule is that partner may be loath to lead away from a holding such as AQT73 after his RHO has bid notrump. But sometimes players will consider J982 a stopper. If partner has the K doubleton, you can take the first five tricks. But if you lead something else, looking for partner's entry, by the time you get to run those spades it may be too late. Of course, you might have been going to lead your suit anyway, lose the first trick to declarer and then wait for partner to get in and lead through. But there are two things that can go wrong with this plan: declarer may be able to hold up long enough to exhaust partner, or partner may have nothing to get in with. This is particularly true when you have opened the bidding or overcalled—the very occasions when partner will want to take the opportunity to tell you the good news.

In any case, this worked out well during the recent 0-5000 Blue Ribbons in Providence, RI. I opened 2D (weak two) with nobody vulnerable. My diamonds were QJTxxx and I had an ace on the side, I think (ACBL "Live" has lost the details of this event already so I can no longer be sure of the whole layout). My RHO ended up in 3NT and partner doubled with Kx. We soon had a top with +500.

In the second part of this blog, we will talk about the most problematic of all calls: double after it goes 1NT pass 3NT.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Extending lead-directing doubles to suit games

I have written many times about different usages of double, especially my favorite  because it is so versatile  the cooperative double.  And I spent some time discussing various types of penalty double, in two parts (there is a third part in draft it seems that never was published).  Penalty Doubles (part 1) covered, among other types, lead-directing doubles.  My overall conclusion is that you won't get rich playing penalty doubles simply to increase your score because you think they are going down, unless you are preserving equity.  So, as Theodore Lightner realized many years ago, there's more profit to be had from suggesting the killing lead than there is in increasing the penalty when they've overbid slightly.  Most people understand that a double of a slam asks for an unusual lead.  And good pairs have discussed what the double of a 3NT contract asks for.  But I haven't read much on how to extend these principles to suit games.

I've also argued previously that cooperative doubles can lead to the juiciest of penalties  because such doubles tend to be made when the high card assets of the defenders and the trump length assets are separated in the two hands over the hapless declarer, who may not even realize that he was overbidding, is outflanked.

So, is it ever right to double because you think they have made an error or are running into bad breaks? Yes  when one of the penalty double triggers has occurred and it's already been established that our side has the makings of pincer movement as described above.  How about this auction: you open 1, LHO overcalls 1 and your partner bids 1NT.  According to my previously published rules (DSIP Rule Summary), penalty doubles are now in effect.  Both sides seem to have plenty to say and, after a competitive auction, we end up bidding 4 with no great certainty of making.  After two passes, RHO bids 4 and we double.  Our hand might be ♠94 AKJT52 QJ8 ♣K6.  Partner's original 1NT call assures us that they don't have a nine-card fit  and we have at least 22 hcp.

But supposing the auction goes thus (we are vulnerable, they are not):  pass (1) 2 (3) pass (3) pass (4) X all pass.  Your hand, by the way, is ♠K3 9876 AKJ94 ♣T5.  Partner is sitting under the spade length, he has passed twice, we have shown a decent hand and suit but have not shown any extras.  Can it possibly be that partner expects to defeat this on power alone?  And he thinks he can get it two tricks?   No, that's not possible.  The double must be lead-directing.  But this is not a slam.  Even if he has a surprise or two (or a void) in clubs, this isn't one of those situations where we get a quick trick on a club lead and then cash an ace for down 1.  No, we have to generate four tricks for our side!

This situation is more akin to trying to defeat a notrump game. The effect of the 2 overcall has raised the level of the auction to a somewhat uncomfortable level and the 3 call, while obviously showing good cards, is looking for a diamond stopper which opener doesn't have.  These folks sound like they might even be on a seven card fit. Surely the only possible interpretation of the double is that partner has some useful trumps and that our advantage of having the lead, if used wisely, will defeat the game.  So, laying down a high diamond is obviously not the solution because if partner wanted us to do that, he would not double.  Could he have a void in hearts or clubs?  Somewhat unlikely given that he never raised diamonds.  And whatever cards he holds in dummy's suit(s), likely clubs, can surely wait their turn.

What would a double mean if declarer had ended in 3NT?  It would (by our agreements, at least) say, don't worry about the fact that you have a hole in your suit  I've got it filled.  In other words, double suggests possession of a high honor in opening leader's suit.  Without the double, leader might try to "find" partner's "ace" for a lead back through declarer.  The double says "I don't have the ace, but you can low because our suit is reasonably solid and we will set the contract."

So what about in this contract, could it be that partner wants a low diamond to the Q (or perhaps even a void)?  Yes, that's got to be it.  Now, declarer runs out of trumps trying to stop diamonds and ends up going down one.  A high diamond lead let's him cruise to ten tricks.

Yes, I was partner and made the double.  And, yes, I had Qx of diamonds and four spades to the J.  Opening leader was not on the same wavelength (and I'm sure my readers will have quite a bit of sympathy with him, as do I).  So we lost 5 imps (instead of gaining 10) but fortunately got two big swings on other boards, not only to win this match, but to pass our opponents in the rankings and take first place at a club swiss.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Penalty Doubles (part 2)

Last time we talked about the five types of penalty double:
  • Lead-directing;
  • Equity-preserving;
  • Penalty-increasing;
  • Psyche-exposing;
  • Tactical.
In particular, we discussed lead-directing doubles in general terms. I mainly want to talk about equity-preserving doubles now so let's get the other three types out of the way quickly.

We'll start with the least common type of double: the tactical double. There are probably many different types of tactical double such as doubling cuebids to sow doubt in the minds of the opponents as to the placement of key honors. But surely the best-named toy here is the Stripe-tailed Ape double whereby, as the opponents bid on their way to a slam you think they might make, you deliberately offer them the option of playing a lower-level contract doubled. When they expose your ploy by redoubling, you have to run like the proverbial ape. Several things can go wrong of course. You'd better have a good suit to run to when they redouble because you are likely to be doubled. Or, the slam might not be making because of some holding in partner's hand, and instead of going, say, +100, you are now -990. Or what happened to me several years ago at a club game playing against an expert pair. I doubled 4♠ and didn't get redoubled. The hand made 6♠ and so I was -1190. But it was a Pyrrhic victory – nobody else actually bid the slam so I got the same bottom as I would have had my opponents bid the slam (-1430). And, who knows, maybe they weren't going to.

In the early days of bridge, when psyching was very common and there were no take-out doubles, the primary reason for the double was, I would argue, to expose pyschic bids. Without the double, the opponents could just bid your suits and make it impossible to find your games or slams. Psyches are relatively uncommon these days. But because we've traded most of our penalty doubles for other kinds of double, a psyche can be hard to expose and consequently quite effective.

Hand-in-hand with that use of double, came the penalty-increase usage. Overbidding was common and double was necessary to keep everyone reasonably honest. The idea is of course that if the opponents have bid a contract (usually a game or slam) that we are pretty sure is going down at least two tricks, we should double, providing of course that our double doesn't tell declarer how to play the hand successfully. Opportunities for this kind of double don't come up all that often. The standard of bidding these days is sufficiently good that, in a non-competitive auction, if a pair bids a game, they will have a play for it unless there are very bad breaks which could not be anticipated. We need to have well-placed cards, especially trumps in a suit which, preferably, declarer has bid more or less on his own, and some sure tricks like aces. The reason for all the caution is simple arithmetic. It's madness to try to increase a penalty by 100 if there's a chance that they might still make (or, worse, make because of the double). Assuming the more favorable case where our double makes no difference to the play, we risk 170 points (for a major suit game) to gain 100. If they redouble, then we are risking 340 to gain 100. For a slam, the odds are even worse. But if the double tips declarer off to the winning line in a game contract, we are now risking 890 points for the sake of 100.

Note that there's another more subtle reason why the double might not pay off. If the trump stack and the outside high cards are all in your own hand, you are quite likely subject to repeated endplays. It's much better if the trump stack is sitting over declarer and the high cards of the partnership are in the other hand. In my partnerships where we play a two-way double scheme, most of our best penalties come from partner passing a cooperative double for penalties – precisely because now the partnership assets are likely to be split. In general, in a non-competitive auction, if the opponents get too high, it is generally going to be good for us with no need to gild the lily.

Now, we come to the equity-preserving double. Essentially, the opponents have sacrificed (deliberately or accidentally) over your contract that you were expecting to make. At the game level, the equity-preserving double is probably at least as common at IMP scoring as at matchpoints. At levels below game, it is much more common at matchpoints. Let's take an obvious example. Red on white, you pick up a balanced 15 count and open 1. Partner makes a limit raise of 3 and you bid the fourth heart. One of the opponents then bids 4♠ and you double. You were very optimistic that you were making 4 but both you and partner have balanced hands (he would likely have splintered with a singleton). You therefore double and hope to earn 800 which would more than make up your "equity." At IMPs, you would likely gain 4 imps and at matchpoints you will probably get close to a top. On the other hand, if you can only take 6 tricks (quite likely), you will lose 3 imps at teams (not a tragedy) but will likely be well below average at MPs. But you did what you could to preserve your equity by making the penalty double. You haven't suggested a stack of trumps or that suits will be splitting or lying badly. You are just doing what you must – "take the money."

Playing matchpoints, you have to be much more aware of possibilities for an equity-preserving double. Let's say you and your partner have bid to 3, a contract which you feel fairly confident of making as you have the balance of power and an eight-card fit. Your vulnerable opponents now bid 3♠. If your hands are sufficiently balanced that you don't expect much play in 4, you double. Assuming that you get them down 1, you will earn 200 which will more than make up your "equity," the 140 you could have scored on your own. On a 12 top, you can probably expect to earn 10 for +200, 6 for +140 and only 2 for +100. If it turns out that they (and you) can make 140 all along, you were probably getting only a few matchpoints for -140 so if you slip and they score up 530, you could say that the double (combined with bad defense) only lost a few matchpoints.

Note that the equity double doesn't work so well if the opponents are non-vulnerable. You would have to beat them two to make up your equity and if you're sufficiently strong for that, there's a reasonable chance of successfully making 420 or 620 in game. That's because the most common number of total tricks in these competitive deals is 17. If you can beat them two in a nine-trick contract, you might well be able to make your own ten-trick contract. Every hand is different, obviously, and each situation has to be evaluated on its own merits. But if they are vulnerable, you only need to double and collect a one-trick set for a result which will at least beat all other part scores.

Equity-preservation can also result from passing a two-way (or cooperative) double.

The main point is that your double in these situations is not intended merely to increase your penalty. At matchpoints, for example, when your opponents have overbid in a non-competitive auction, you will be getting a good board anyway. Doubling is unlikely to give you more than one or two matchpoints extra and there is a risk that you might lose what would otherwise be an average board if they do in fact make the hand. This is especially true when the opponents overbid to four or five of a minor. Even if they make, many of your virtual teammates might manage to make 3NT, possibly with an overtrick. If they don't make, a plus score should be good for you – you weren't in the auction to begin with.

Now, to the quiz in part one. Your hand was: ♠83 QJ98 62 ♣J9754, red against white. The auction proceeded, starting with partner: 1–2–p–2NT; 3–4–4–p; p–5–p–5NT; p–6♠–p–p; X–p–p–p. What did you lead? If you led a club, you are the hero! A double in such circumstances never asks for a trump so that's out. Partner has freely bid two suits and the opponents seem to be unimpressed. Double can't help distinguish between partner's two suits (without the double, my rule is always to lead the second-mentioned suit because that is generally the suit for which partner went furthest out on a limb). So, in keeping with the rule mentioned in part one, partner doesn't want you to lead either of his suits. Partner ruffs the club and cashes one diamond for +100. At the other table, it went p–2♣–p–2; X–2♠–p–2NT; p–4♠–p–5♠; p–6♠–p–p; X–p–p–p. Opening leader, apparently not familiar with the central concept of part one of this blog, led a diamond for -1210.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Penalty Doubles (part 1)

I've written a lot in these blogs about cooperative (two-way) doubles which are primarily intended to discover shape information.  Quite often, these are converted to penalty doubles by passing.  What I want to talk about here is the true penalty double.  This is the first of two parts.

I've identified five types of penalty double: (1) lead-directing, (2) equity-preserving, (3) penalty-increasing, (4) psych-exposing, and (5) tactical.  Let's start with the first type, the lead-directing double.  There are two sub-types: (a) double of an artificial bid and (b) double of the final contract.

Because the first type occurs before the natural conclusion of the auction (at least you think it's not yet over), it can serve both as a lead-director and as a proxy bid, suggesting values in the suit doubled.  Partner might use this information to sacrifice later on or, if he ends up on lead, then he will normally lead the suit doubled.  One of the advantages of this type of double is that it's "free".  But we all know that there's no such thing as a free lunch!  I learned this the hard way many years ago in my first Flight A Swiss.  Playing a pair of Grand Life Masters (yes, I should know better), I doubled a Stayman 2♣ bid for a club lead.  LGLM redoubled and RGLM passed.  There was no way to defeat 2♣ and one of those special scores got burned into memory: 760.  This was "only" a 4-imp loss as our teammates made 600.  But overtricks, if there had been any, would have been exorbitant – additionally 7, 3, 2, etc. imps.

But I digress.  The second type of lead-directing double is when the (expected) final contract is doubled to ask for a specific lead.  First introduced back in the early days of bridge by Theodore Lightner, this double is intended to create a penalty where none existed before.  In other words, if you make an unusual lead, partner, this contract is going down, otherwise, it will be making.  Because this type of double doesn't simply increase the penalty but instead defeats a contract, it is generally the most profitable of all doubles.  Because the margin of error in slams is so small, the Lightner double was first described as a defense to slams.  Imagine the opponents have bid to 6♠ while you hold ♠A2 and a side void, you know that the slam is going down – if only you can persuade partner to lead your void suit.  It is of course just possible that declarer has a void in the same suit and your plan may go awry but that would be unfortunate to say the least.

[In a distant aside, that actually happened to my opponent in a bizarre incident that occurred just before I gave up bridge for 18 years.  The scene was the 1980 NABC in Detroit, my first tournament of any kind, soon after I'd learned the game.  I was in 7 which was doubled for a diamond lead.  The opening lead was a diamond and I claimed (there were approximately 15 tricks on view and I was void in diamonds).  The director was called and it was ruled that, because I didn't explicitly say in my statement that I would over-ruff my RHO, I was down one.]

Back to the present.  Again, there are dangers with lead-directing doubles.  The most likely thing to happen is that one of the opponents will pull the contract to no-trump.  Now, your precious ruff just evaporated and if they can still manage 12 tricks you will have helped them go from a failing contract to an impregnable one.  Your partner will undoubtedly point out that he was going to lead your void suit without your silly double.  The next danger is that partner won't know which of the other three suits to lead.  If he is long in dummy's suit, that should be pretty obvious.  But dummy doesn't always oblige by bidding a suit.

This is where experts invoke the following rule: if you have bid a suit during the auction (or made an earlier lead-directing double) and you subsequently make a lead-directing double of the final, freely-bid suit contract, you definitely do not want partner to lead your suit.  You were expecting that lead and there would be little point in doubling simply to increase a penalty that was already coming.

Of course, there are the usual dangers.  You might be incorrect about your ability to defeat the contract.  Partner might not recognize the difference between a lead-directing double and one of the other two types of penalty double.  One of these situations arose recently in a pairs game.  I should note in passing that the strange mechanism of scoring used in pairs games complicates the entire business of penalty doubles. I held ♠ – 952 AJ7432 ♣ AQJ5.  My LHO opened 1, partner passed and RHO bid 3 showing a four-piece constructive raise of hearts.  Assuming my opponents were bidding honestly, that left partner with at most one heart.  I wanted to show my diamonds, force the opponents to game, make a lead-directing double and hope that partner could work out to lead spades (and come up with a fourth trick).  In retrospect, I'm not at all sure why I was so optimistic!  Since we play two-way (cooperative) doubles, I had to trigger penalty doubles with either a lead-directing double of the 3 call, or make a bid that showed a good suit (similar to a preempt) with 4.  I chose the latter (which, had I bought the contract, would have been down 1).  LHO obliged with 4 and it came back to me.  Now to spring the trap (so I hoped).  I doubled confidently and awaited a spade lead.  I got a diamond.  There was still a chance though.  I won the ace, cashed the ♣A and led a low club to partner's ♣K.  At this point, a passive lead would have resulted in down 1.  Unfortunately, partner tried to give me a club ruff.  There was now no way to defeat the contract and so we went from a potential +800 (this would require a spade lead, plus a double-dummy defense of me leading a club to partner's T at trick 2) to -790.  Quite a swing! 

We had some friendly discussions about which would be the better club to continue at trick 3, whether it would have been better to double 3 or bid 4, and so on – but it is nevertheless an instructive hand.  The essential problem was that it wasn't clear to partner which type of penalty double I was making.  I think the only contenders, based on the auction, were types 1 and 3 (lead-directional and penalty-increasing).  Had I doubled 3 then I think type 2 (equity preservation) might have been possible also.

Now, here's a test to see if you've been paying attention.  This hand actually occurred today in the seventh match of a sectional Swiss.  Your hand is:  ♠ 83 QJ98 62 ♣ J9754, red against white.  Hold on to your hat.  You won't experience this auction everyday!  Starting with partner, it goes 1–2–p–2NT; 3–4–4–p; p–5–p–5NT; p–6♠–p–p; X–p–p–p.  What do you lead?  Answer in part two.

In the next part of this series, I will try to show that, while penalty double type 3 (penalty-increasing) may be the traditional interpretation, the species is actually less common at duplicate bridge than one might expect.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

A difficult hand

At the club the other evening I held this hand ♠64 J983A82 ♣JT94 and heard the following auction, starting on my right (we were silent throughout): 1 - 2♣ - 2NT - 3♠ - 4♣ - 4NT - 5 - 6♣.  I was in the passout seat and considered briefly whether to double.  Clearly this contract was going down unless somehow declarer had a void in diamonds or could quickly pitch a losing diamond.  The Roman keycard blackwood sequence suggested no voids, however.  So it seemed prudent to pass and await developments.  There was another very good reason not to double and that was because double would ask for an unusual lead.  Since I could have doubled 5 for a heart lead, it wouldn't be clear what an unusual lead would get.  A heart lead could easily be disastrous if partner had say the K (he did).  Finally, there was the fact that I knew that they were in a bad contract and so I was happy.  Why tip them off?  Stay with happiness.

Somewhat surprisingly, partner led the K and we took the first two tricks.  I subsequently got my club trick and so we were +200.  Obviously we were getting a top.

But wait!  The hand proved to be difficult for our "team-mates" too and, believe it or not, +200 was a common result for our direction.  There was a 500, three 300s, and four other 200s.  So our score was only 15/21.  No other pair was in 6♣ (two were in 5♣ down 1) and the majority of the blood was shed in spade contracts.  Our side doubled only once: a 4 contract (that accounts for the 500).

So let's see how this should have been bid.  Let's put ourselves in the dealer's seat with: ♠K93 AQT62973 ♣K5.  After the initial 1 call and the game-forcing 2♣ response, what should the rebid be?  In my opinion, 2 is automatic.  2NT would be fine if we had some sort of honor in diamonds, but we have nothing.  Of course, we hate to bid 2 with only five pieces, but partner knows it's a possibility so should take that into account.

Partner will now bid 2♠, completing the picture of his hand as being at least 5-4 in the black suits.  Now what?  Again, I think the correct bid is automatic: 3.  This, the fourth suit, is artificial and says I have no obvious bid -- I can't support either of your suits and I can't bid notrump because I don't have anything in diamonds.  Partner will bid 3NT with a diamond stopper and all will hopefully be well.  If he happens to have 4045 shape, he can "raise" diamonds.

In this case, partner doesn't have a diamond stopper and will now bid 4♣, hopefully showing a sixth club.

At this point, I think pass stands out but I wouldn't call it automatic.  5♣ might be right.  Most partnerships don't consider a 2/1 game force to be forcing to a minor-suit game when there's no fit and we can't play notrump.  We do have quite a nice club holding, but there again, we have a bare minimum hand.  In this case, 4♣ is the last making contract.  My LHO's hand, by the way, was ♠AQ72 5T4 ♣AQ8732.

The key to bidding this hand, I believe, is our old friend the fourth suit.  It's amazing how often people fail to use it when it's the right bid.  I've even heard it said that since we're already in a game force, how can it be artificial?  That is nonsense of course.  Like "double", the fourth suit is an under-utilized bid that should be our friend.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Officially Old

It's official.  I've joined the ranks of the oldies by playing in my first "Seniors" event. I think having events limited to Seniors (55+) is completely daft – the vast majority of players qualify to play in such events – such events simply exclude something like of 20% of active players, the ones that are the future of bridge.  But there you are, we in New England have a Seniors-only Regional and we're not going to give it up.  So, Len and I drove the two hours each way to Chatham, a beautiful spot at the elbow of Cape Cod, for a two-session pairs game.  We played badly in the afternoon, with more than our fair share of bad luck, but recovered in the evening to get a section top, not quite sufficient comeback for an overall award.

The crowd is slightly different.  Many of the contestants seem to be of the more social bridge types, including quite a few pairs who appeared to be couples.  Table etiquette wasn't always perfect.  There was an unusually high number of director calls.  But I thought the standard of play was a little better than I expected.

An interesting situation came up.  Only we are vulnerable and LHO deals and opens 2♣ (strong and artificial).  Partner passes and RHO bids 2, artificial showing 0-3 hcp.  Our hand is ♠A64 KJ964 9 ♣AQ72, a hand we would have opened had we been first to speak.  We can assume that LHO has at least 18hcp (although stranger things have happened) and probably not more than 25hcp.  So they have 18-26, leaving partner with 0-8.  A priori, any hand that falls with in a range is more likely to be at the "ten" end of the range than the other end.  So let's tentatively assume that partner has 5cp.  Chances are he's going to be on lead against a spade, diamond or notrump contract, at least based on our hand.  We want to help him avoid giving anything away on the lead.  How about a lead-directing double?

Our first thought is that the vulnerability is wrong for us, but that's misleading.  We are very unlikely to be declaring so our vulnerability is not relevant.  However, there is just a possibility that they may "send it back", i.e. redouble and needless to say, if they make 2XX, it will be very bad news for us.  Not quite such bad news when they are not-vulnerable, but it won't matter much, at least, not at matchpoints.  2XX will beat any other game contract (640) and two overtricks (1040) will beat any slam they could legitimately make (which does seem pretty unlikely, given our hand).  Still with their (estimated) 21 hcp and at least a 5-0 split against them, worrying about 2XX seems unduly pessimistic.

Still, there are other dangers in doubling for a heart lead.  Declarer might have A, Q and T sitting over us.  But, if that is so, declarer could have taken that finesse for himself, assuming that he has some way of reaching dummy,  Besides, there's a possibility that dummy, or even partner, will have the Q or T.

On balance, I think I might risk the double.  However, you could accuse me of having 20-20 hindsight, since this action would have worked well for several reasons.

But, let's say we go with the conservative route and pass (bearing in mind that we have to pass quicker than it takes you to read all this, lest our hesitation suggest a heart lead).  LHO now bids 3 and this is passed out.  Partner leads the ♠2 (3rd and lowest) dummy comes down with  ♠JT9 T82 63 ♣JT986.  Now, how are you feeling about passing over 2?

Anyway, you win your A (declarer playing the Q) and return the 6, declarer playing the K.  I think switching to trumps looks better given that we can't ruff the third spade, even if partner has the K.  Declarer starts the trumps with the A, all following (partner plays the 4) and continues with the Q, partner winning with the K.  It's a pity partner didn't lead a club at the beginning as he might now be getting a club ruff.  Meanwhile, we need to make a discard to help partner decide what to continue.  What should it be?  Partner might be thinking that we started with A6 of spades, in which case, we can't stop declarer getting to dummy for a finesse in hearts or clubs.  Pitching our other spade would clarify the position.  But actually, we have stuff in hearts and we wouldn't be unhappy with a heart lead.  It's important to note here that our discard will be telling, not asking.  If we play an encouraging heart, partner is not commanded to lead that suit.  We are simply informing him where we have values.  As it turns out partner has the HQ and will be happy to lead a low heart.  A trump continuation by partner will also be safe.

Unfortunately, we decide to discard our lowest heart and partner thinks that perhaps the safest lead is to give declarer his spade, as he assumes that declarer will likely want to finesse a heart to his Q.  Disaster!  Partner gives declarer access to an otherwise unreachable dummy for a pitch and to finesse against our clubs.  Instead of going plus like everyone else, we are minus 130 for a very round zero.