I'll admit it up front. I'm looking for sympathy.
First, your hand and the auction: ♠Q643 ♥K862 ♦K4 ♣832 with all vulnerable. RHO is the dealer and he passes as do you. LHO opens 1NT (15-17) which is passed out. Partner leads the ♠T ("standard leads") and this is the dummy that we see: ♠72 ♥QT3 ♦6532 ♣AT76. Partner appears to have around 10 points yet is apparently making a passive lead. That's a little odd but presumably there's a good reason. So, which spades in partner's hand can we definitely rule out? The knave for sure. That's for damn sure, as Jack Reacher would say. And of course the queen (we have it). It looks like declarer must have something like AKJ(x). Is there any possibility that partner has the king?
Let's take a short diversion now and consider the "standard" leads in bridge versus notrump contracts. Clearly, the highest of any sequence of honors (the ten or above) is a candidate. AKQ(x), KQJ(x), QJT(x) are all obvious and automatic leads (unless we have a very strange hand). But what if we have only two honors in sequence? We normally like to have a third honor (or high card) which is only one card separated, as a "kicker". Such sequences are called, rather euphemistically it seems, interior sequences. So, for example, AQJ(x), KJT(x), QT9(x) are "standard" leads, as are AKJ(x), KQT(x), and QJ9(x) – note that (so I believe) in these latter cases the "standard" card to lead is the lower of the touching honors [does anybody really do that?]. Of course many pairs don't play these time-honored standard leads – there's Journalist (or Vinje), Rusinow, jack-denies/ten-implies, and agreements asking for attitude or count.
So, how safe are these honor leads, anyway? And why does having a kicker increase the safety or effectiveness? Well, of course if the missing card is in partner's hand, there's no problem (unless it ends up blocking the suit). If it's sitting under you in declarer's hand, there's a decent chance that partner will get in and finesse against the missing honor. If it's sitting over your with sufficient guards, then too bad, unless partner can squish it with his hoped-for honor. Then again, there's always some chance that the missing honor will be unguarded in one of the opponents' hands. The longer your suit, then obviously the more likely this will happen. It would be tragic to lead low from you long suit headed by KQT only to see dummy win with the singleton jack!
How about the situation when there are two missing honors? Suppose that you have AJT83 opposite 52? You stand an excellent chance of running this suit for four tricks if lead the jack and your partner can get in later. Several bad things can happen – declarer holding up, the KQ being split (or both in dummy) – but in general, you have done your best and you've made it easy for partner. So this seems like a worth exception to the idea of an interior sequence having a gap of just one card.
But what about KT98(x)? Is this a sequence for the purposes of opening leads? According to Eddie Kantar (500 Defensive Tips) it is. Yet is there any good reason for making this lead? I've done a thorough study and I have not been able to find one layout where there is any advantage in leading the ten rather than the deuce. And if the deuce is fine, so is the eight. Is there any time when we don't want partner to play his ace unnecessarily? What if dummy has QJx, partner Axx and declarer xx? But we can never win five tricks with this layout and partner will do best to hop up with his ace and lead back low, keeping communications open as appropriate.
So, I'm not a believer in this kind of honor sequence lead and therefore I tend to discount it as a possibility. Is there any reason to put up the queen? Could it do any harm? Yes, it could do harm if partner's spades are T98 and declarer has AKJ7. We will have just given him the seven as his fourth spade trick.
That was my thinking in any case. Yet, twice now (including quite recently) I've been broadsided by (different) partners leading T from KT98(x). Declarer made two tricks out of AJ tight! Aargh!
So here's a request to all my partners: please don't treat KT9(8) as an interior sequence. I don't think there's a good enough reason for it. And, even when you think there is, remember that your partner is just too dimwitted to figure it out at the table.
Showing posts with label sequence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sequence. Show all posts
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Sequences (part one)
If music be the food of love, then sequences are the life-blood of bridge. Every bridge writer remarks that defense is harder than offense, but in my opinion none have adequately described why. Yes, the declarer can see all of his "assets". But it's specifically the sequences that make the crucial difference. A defender can sometimes immediately see that one of his significant cards cannot be in sequence with his partner (the dummy holds the surrounding cards) but he can rarely be sure that partner has a fitting honor until later in the hand when there has been time for signalling. By then, it may well be too late.
Sequences are most important in the first couple of leads of a suit. After that, assuming leader is trying to develop long cards, the opponents are likely to start showing out of the suit or at least having to play their sequence-breakers and what cards are left are more likely, now, to be sequential.
The next best card combination after a sequence is a quasi-sequence, known as a tenace. That's to say we almost have a sequence but there is a card missing. A tenace is positional in normal play, in other words its effectiveness depends on the location of the missing card. However, even if the card is wrong, it may be possible to win both cards of the tenace on an endplay.
Sequences can be split between the two partnership hands and still be effective. In fact, such an arrangement can provide transportation between the hands. Tenaces can be split and retain some effectiveness but it is generally reduced. For example, AQJ opposite xx may provide three tricks if the king is right. But Axx opposite QJ will produce only two tricks even if the king is onside. Longer split tenaces fare better: A5432 opposite QJT9 will always produce five tricks if the king is onside, assuming one outside entry to the long card. Sometimes, a tenace can even kill a sequence sitting under it, for example AKT sitting over QJx.
Of course any sequence or tenace has to have a reasonable rank to be useful. Holding the 65432 in a suit (a straight flush) may look pretty but it has no value whatsoever as a sequence. When a suit has no significant sequences at any given point of the play, it may be said to be "frozen": whichever side leads the suit gives up a trick. We'll examine these more closely in part two.
On defense, the opening lead is particularly dangerous for the simple reason that you don't know which cards in your hand are part of a partnership sequence and you don't usually know where partner has a tenace sitting over the dummy. This is why having your own sequence(s) is so very important, lest you "blow up" a suit that was frozen. Leading from a safe sequence (AK, KQ, QJT, JT98) can never lose a trick in the suit directly but it can sometimes lose a tempo if there was something more urgent to do. How many times have we seen the Abbot lead from a sequence like KQJT only to have Brother Xavier remark after the hand "not the best of leads, Abbot."
For our first example we will go to another deal involving the Abbot and Brother Xavier (from Celestial Cardplay by David Bird, 2009). This time, the Abbot is, through the Good Lord's mysterious handiwork, partnering the disrespectful novice, Brother Cameron. In this hand we will see how the natural advantage of the defenders in having the opening lead is, as so often happens, nullified by the wrong choice of suit. And why does Bro. Xavier go wrong this time when he leads the obvious ♠Q? Because the key sequence in his partnership's hands is hidden in his partner's hand.
Perhaps if Ethan had had a chance to double an artificial club bid, the story might have ended differently. But then the two club honors might have been split. There's something to be said for an attacking lead against a slam when you know dummy is coming down with a good suit but that was not clear on this auction. And to lead from an unsupported honor when you have such an "obvious" sequence in another suit, might require some good arguments in the post-mortem.
No, the reason that the slam came home, apart from a relatively lucky lie of the cards, was declarer's intrinsic advantage and the defender's corresponding disadvantage: the ability or inability to see your sequences. It's true that even a diamond lead sets the slam but for a different reason: the trump situation provides no entry to the diamonds after they have been set up (East has to be sufficiently alert to continue diamonds at trick 2).
To be continued.
Sequences are most important in the first couple of leads of a suit. After that, assuming leader is trying to develop long cards, the opponents are likely to start showing out of the suit or at least having to play their sequence-breakers and what cards are left are more likely, now, to be sequential.
The next best card combination after a sequence is a quasi-sequence, known as a tenace. That's to say we almost have a sequence but there is a card missing. A tenace is positional in normal play, in other words its effectiveness depends on the location of the missing card. However, even if the card is wrong, it may be possible to win both cards of the tenace on an endplay.
Sequences can be split between the two partnership hands and still be effective. In fact, such an arrangement can provide transportation between the hands. Tenaces can be split and retain some effectiveness but it is generally reduced. For example, AQJ opposite xx may provide three tricks if the king is right. But Axx opposite QJ will produce only two tricks even if the king is onside. Longer split tenaces fare better: A5432 opposite QJT9 will always produce five tricks if the king is onside, assuming one outside entry to the long card. Sometimes, a tenace can even kill a sequence sitting under it, for example AKT sitting over QJx.
Of course any sequence or tenace has to have a reasonable rank to be useful. Holding the 65432 in a suit (a straight flush) may look pretty but it has no value whatsoever as a sequence. When a suit has no significant sequences at any given point of the play, it may be said to be "frozen": whichever side leads the suit gives up a trick. We'll examine these more closely in part two.
On defense, the opening lead is particularly dangerous for the simple reason that you don't know which cards in your hand are part of a partnership sequence and you don't usually know where partner has a tenace sitting over the dummy. This is why having your own sequence(s) is so very important, lest you "blow up" a suit that was frozen. Leading from a safe sequence (AK, KQ, QJT, JT98) can never lose a trick in the suit directly but it can sometimes lose a tempo if there was something more urgent to do. How many times have we seen the Abbot lead from a sequence like KQJT only to have Brother Xavier remark after the hand "not the best of leads, Abbot."
For our first example we will go to another deal involving the Abbot and Brother Xavier (from Celestial Cardplay by David Bird, 2009). This time, the Abbot is, through the Good Lord's mysterious handiwork, partnering the disrespectful novice, Brother Cameron. In this hand we will see how the natural advantage of the defenders in having the opening lead is, as so often happens, nullified by the wrong choice of suit. And why does Bro. Xavier go wrong this time when he leads the obvious ♠Q? Because the key sequence in his partnership's hands is hidden in his partner's hand.
Perhaps if Ethan had had a chance to double an artificial club bid, the story might have ended differently. But then the two club honors might have been split. There's something to be said for an attacking lead against a slam when you know dummy is coming down with a good suit but that was not clear on this auction. And to lead from an unsupported honor when you have such an "obvious" sequence in another suit, might require some good arguments in the post-mortem.
No, the reason that the slam came home, apart from a relatively lucky lie of the cards, was declarer's intrinsic advantage and the defender's corresponding disadvantage: the ability or inability to see your sequences. It's true that even a diamond lead sets the slam but for a different reason: the trump situation provides no entry to the diamonds after they have been set up (East has to be sufficiently alert to continue diamonds at trick 2).
To be continued.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)